I’m getting out my Crystal ball today to make some predictions about the about the trends I see in the future and how they may effect small business.

1. Web Based Applications. I predict that in the next five years most of applications that you currently use on your desktop will migrate to the web. Currently accounting, office suites, email, and CRM applications have a strong web presence. In addition, companies like Google, Force.com, and Amazon are making infrastructure available for computer programmers. For the small business person, this is going to be one of the biggest boosts to growth. You’re not going to need expensive computers and networks, and you will be able to access your business applications from multiple locations. The technology barrier for entry will all but be eliminated in most businesses.

2. Cloud Based Infrastructure. There are currently a multitude of companies give you the ability to set up a server over the Internet and pay only for usage. I believe that the server room is soon to be a thing of the past for most companies.

3. Internet Everywhere (Mobile and Wireless). Mobile devices and Internet connectivity will become ubiquitous. (I’ve always wanted to use that term in a sentence). Both consumers and business will be able to access data from any location. Services like that Clearwire (high speed wireless Internet) will become common from cellphone and other providers. It will be important for businesses to embrace mobile technology to be successful.

4. The Death of the Phone Number As We Know It. (I’ve been predicting this for years, eventually I’ll get it right.) With the growth of Internet phone applications, Phone numbers will begin to fade away. Most calls will be over the Internet via Skype and Skype-like services. Phone numbers, where you have them, will no longer indicate your location (I already deal with someone who has a Texas area code but lives in Georgia.)

I read an article today on Forbes today about ‘Why Cloud Computing Matters to Small Biz’ and it reminded my about a story from my past that supports the point made in the article.

About 8 years ago a partner and I put together plan to start  what would be now be called a cloud application.  (Back then the term “cloud” hadn’t been coined in its current form, so it was just a “web-based” application.) As part of this project, I had to put together a business plan which included hardware and networking expenditures. Obviously, for a ‘web-based application’ we needed servers, network infrastructure, a fractional T3 (pipe to the web). Those costs were significant; they included $25,000 in servers, $2000 in network infrastructure and, $5000 per month for Internet, and this didn’t even include rent for a place to keep it all. And for all that, there was no redundancy, and every 5 new customers we would have to outlay another $10,000 for more servers. This was  lot of money for 2 guys without jobs to come up with.

To do the same thing  today, I can go to GoGrid, Force.com, Amazon web services or any other cloud based infrastructure provider, and set it up for a fraction of the cost. On top of that,  the costs are completely tied to usage so I don’t have to outlay a lot of funds up front while I wait for my  customers’ monthly fees to cover the cost.  (Great for cash flow!!). In addition I have, backups, redundancy,  and network bandwidth that can grow with the business.

Needless to say, the cloud creates opportunities for business that just a few years ago were out of reach. (By the way, that business never got off the drawing board for a multitude of reasons)

How do you think the cloud can help or hurt small business ?